Support for all other candidates added up to around 10 percent. He has 29 percent now - roughly double what DeSantis has - and up from 24 percent in April and 16 percent in February. DeSantis’ share of supporters has not shifted, holding just under 14 percent. The proportion of undecided chairs remains significant, but it dipped a bit to 47 percent, down from 51 percent in April. The first question I asked was simply whether the county chairs had committed to supporting a candidate, and if so, whom that might be. The one hope for Trump holdouts is that many chairs remain undecided.Īs director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, I sent this survey to roughly 3,000 GOP chairs, one for every county in the country 133 Republican chairs responded, roughly the same number who responded to the April survey. But so far, support for all the candidates combined still falls short of Trump’s tally. Some commentators have suggested the crowded primary campaign could mirror that of 2016, when Trump snatched the nomination because other candidates split the anti-Trump vote. Will Hurd and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez. Chris Christie, along with seemingly even bigger longshots like North Dakota Gov. This past month has seen a raft of new entrants to the GOP race, including some expected contenders like former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Gov. Kyle Cheney and Alex Isenstadt and Josh Gerstein and Meridith McGraw Roughly twice as many county party chairs are now committed to Trump as to DeSantis, and no other candidates have really broken through. Yet I found Trump’s support continued to increase. The most recent survey, conducted in the first few weeks of June, came amid yet another criminal indictment - this time involving federal charges that he mishandled classified documents, including violations of the Espionage Act. It appeared Republicans were rallying to the embattled former president once again. But in the wake of Trump’s April indictment in Manhattan, related to his alleged hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels, Trump picked up some support, largely at DeSantis’ expense. Ron DeSantis among those who had committed to a candidate, and unlike DeSantis, there appeared to be a real ceiling for how much Trump’s support could grow. When I launched my first survey in February, Trump was looking vulnerable. They’re also still close to the rank-and-file grassroots, and their shifts are likely to signal where the rest of the party is going. They are highly attentive to the party’s internal dynamics and are influential in local GOP circles they offer the kind of endorsements that candidates are eager to collect. County chairs are figures who will play a key role in shaping the race. What takes place during the invisible primary is the crucial coordination and jockeying that occurs before anyone starts voting or caucusing, but which will do much to determine the eventual winner. My survey of GOP county chairs is part of an ongoing effort to track the so-called “invisible primary” for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, with a series that is being featured in POLITICO Magazine over the next year.
0 Comments
|
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |